TSI #2.5: ASML Part 2
Summary
To fully appreciate ASML’s monopoly over the litho industry, it is worth looking back at some of the history. In Part 1 we reviewed past competitors, milestones, & challenges.
In Part 2 we take a look at ASML's roadmap and provide an overview of the recent 2Q22 results.
ASML’s monopoly is here to stay. The main risk to its future dominance may be from the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.
ASML is struggling with supply issues, that have caused it to push out a chunk of revenue to FY23 which has dragged down FY22 expected growth from 20% to 10%.
Orders, however, are extremely strong, and management believes that fabs’ pursuit of long-term goals will outweigh any near-term macro uncertainties.
ASML’s Roadmap
As what happened with costs as fabs increased the number of sub-patterns with 193nm Immersion, the same will happen with EUV as multi-patterning is incorporated. This is why a next-gen EUV litho system is already in development – EUV with High-NA (Numerical Aperture). High-NA EUV will generate even finer resolutions so fabs can shrink chip features even further to drive performance gains. Bringing this to production at the fabs is ASML’s next major technological milestone – and is earmarked for 2025.
The following chart shows the evolution of costs per wafer from 193i with a single pattern per layer (i.e., LE – stands for a Litho-Etch step) to 193i with quadruple patterning per layer (LE-4). According to this analysis, the current EUV standard (a NA of 0.33) has lowered costs per wafer by about 25% compared to 193i LE-4 (and about 10% compared to 193i LE-3). Though, the incremental cost saving when fabs move to High-NA EUV compared to standard-NA EUV is expected to be substantially greater. Note: CD is for Critical Dimension; the numerator is the wavelength (13.5nm); NA is for Numerical Aperture; K is a factor for the illumination system.
Using the CD formula for the 13.5nm wavelength, the standard NA of 0.33 and say a K factor of 0.3, you’ll arrive at a CD of 12.3nm. Swapping the 0.33 NA for the higher 0.55 NA results in a CD of 7.4nm. This means High-NA EUV will shrink features by 40%, or by 1.7x as presented by ASML in the next slide [1 / (1-0.4) = 1.67]. This formula explains why immersion has been so effective at shrinking critical dimensions for the 193nm wavelength, as it expands the NA and thus can produce finer resolutions. And, in essence, High-NA EUV is applying the same method for the EUV roadmap.
In a similar vein to shifting from 193i to EUV, the move from EUV to High-NA EUV is also expected to save fabs costs by reducing process steps, reducing defects, and shortening cycle times.